tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2208 Southwest JAX 10:55 AUS 12:38 12% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → JAX 14:31 AUS 16:25 21% 6% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 4h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 5h 03m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:38 → AUS 15:22UA 2746 7h 02m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 5h 08m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 5h 13m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAH 10:54UA 6224 · flown by Mesa 3h 26m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 7h 09m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 09m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAX 12:37 → IAD 14:48UA 1938 3h 12m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 8h 58m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 17:59 → CLT 19:29AA 2898 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434 5h 18m 67% 40%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 6h 59m 67% 30%
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:16 → ORD 20:01AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 1h 15m Chicago ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935 6h 43m 64% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON