Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3116 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3116 JAX 06:09 → CLT 07:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1999 JAX 20:24 → CLT 21:51 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3116 American	JAX 06:09	CLT 07:36	8%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 1834 American Flight history →	JAX 06:18	CLT 07:45	8%	3%	1.4%	92%
AA 1466 American	JAX 11:08	CLT 12:36	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1925 American Flight history →	JAX 13:46	CLT 15:13	26%	6%	1.0%	70%
AA 2898 American Flight history →	JAX 17:59	CLT 19:29	33%	7%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
AA 1999 American Flight history →	JAX 20:24	CLT 21:51	35%	8%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON