Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 853 at 14:50, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 853 Southwest	JAX 14:50	DAL 16:25	26%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 46m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 24m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 11m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON