Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3731 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3731 JAX 05:59 → DCA 08:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1463 JAX 20:06 → DCA 22:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3731 Envoy	JAX 05:59	DCA 08:01	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 949 American Flight history →	JAX 11:45	DCA 13:40	14%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 1463 American Flight history →	JAX 20:06	DCA 22:20	26%	10%	1.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON