Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 671 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3034 JAX 13:55 → DEN 15:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	JAX 08:09	DEN 09:55	8%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2014 United	JAX 15:03	DEN 17:14	25%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3034 Southwest	JAX 13:55	DEN 15:30	28%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 19m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON