Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1171 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1171 JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1460 JAX 20:01 → DFW 21:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 07:24	DFW 09:12	9%	5%	1.5%	90%
AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 09:34	DFW 11:13	14%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	JAX 12:10	DFW 13:56	21%	7%	1.1%	80%
AA 2329 American	JAX 13:34	DFW 15:31	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 1472 American	JAX 17:23	DFW 19:17	31%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1460 American	JAX 20:01	DFW 21:49	33%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON