Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:47	DTW 14:08	9%	4%	0.9%	90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:22	DTW 20:45	17%	4%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 08:23 → DTW 10:19DL 643	4h 49m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 56m	99%	84%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	1h 16m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	6h 37m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031	6h 14m	100%	82%
American Details →	JAX 06:32 → ORD 08:24AA 764	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 33m	96%	81%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	3h 34m Charlotte	CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683	6h 48m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → JFK 09:29DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m New York	JFK 12:56 → DTW 14:46DL 1654	7h 41m	97%	80%
United Details →	JAX 09:35 → EWR 11:59UA 1144	2h 08m Newark	EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa	46m Houston	IAH 18:44 → DTW 22:44UA 2755	6h 21m	69%	44%
American Details →	JAX 20:24 → CLT 21:51AA 1999	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	4h 17m	65%	44%
American Details →	JAX 18:16 → ORD 20:01AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	56m Chicago	ORD 20:57 → DTW 23:20AA 4012 · flown by Envoy	5h 04m	50%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON