Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1434 JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest YV 6189 JAX 19:23 → IAD 21:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 09:20	IAD 11:16	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	JAX 12:37	IAD 14:48	9%	5%	0.8%	93%
YV 6189 Mesa	JAX 19:23	IAD 21:34	16%	9%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON