Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2711 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 2711 JAX 07:38 → MIA 09:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest MQ 3342 JAX 15:43 → MIA 17:08 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 07:38	MIA 09:06	14%	6%	0.8%	93%
MQ 4023 Envoy	JAX 19:44	MIA 21:18	38%	15%	2.0%	no record
MQ 4024 Envoy	JAX 14:19	MIA 15:51	38%	14%	3.9%	no record
MQ 3342 Envoy	JAX 15:43	MIA 17:08	49%	18%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON