Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 764 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 06:32 → ORD 08:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3486 JAX 18:16 → ORD 20:01 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:32	ORD 08:24	10%	4%	1.1%	81%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:11	ORD 09:09	15%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:35	ORD 11:18	16%	7%	0.7%	82%
YX 4459 Republic	JAX 12:22	ORD 14:14	24%	9%	2.3%	no record
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:40	ORD 14:31	34%	15%	2.4%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	43%	22%	1.2%	70%worse than usual
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 18:16	ORD 20:01	44%	17%	2.7%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON