Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1819 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1819 JAX 07:09 → PHL 09:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1803 JAX 18:11 → PHL 20:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1819 American	JAX 07:09	PHL 09:34	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 09:41	PHL 12:05	12%	4%	0.8%	91%
F9 2862 Frontier	JAX 09:07	PHL 11:38	14%	7%	1.1%	no record
OH 5060 PSA	JAX 16:06	PHL 18:34	24%	12%	2.0%	no record
AA 1803 American	JAX 18:11	PHL 20:36	35%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON