tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 03m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 7h 46m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366 7h 37m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAX 12:37 → IAD 14:48UA 1938 3h 02m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 10h 09m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 3h 36m Houston IAH 16:47 → PHX 17:40UA 1478 9h 03m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAH 10:54UA 6224 · flown by Mesa 3h 19m Houston IAH 14:13 → PHX 15:03UA 1798 8h 43m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55UA 671 1h 24m Denver DEN 11:19 → PHX 12:18UA 8175 7h 09m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 17:59 → CLT 19:29AA 2898 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 20:33 → PHX 21:54AA 3057 6h 55m 67% 39%
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:16 → ORD 20:01AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 58m Chicago ORD 20:59 → PHX 22:54AA 3277 7h 38m 53% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON