tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2221 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2221 Southwest JAX 05:55 STL 07:14 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 862 Southwest JAX 19:15 STL 20:35 27% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 13m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 17m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 2h 20m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333 2h 37m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 37m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 6h 47m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 25m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa 2h 32m Houston IAH 20:30 → STL 22:45UA 6187 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 6h 14m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 12:10 → DFW 13:56AA 1061 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → STL 16:37AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 5h 27m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → JAX 20:24 → CLT 21:51AA 1999 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 4h 34m 67% 46%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211 1h 04m Chicago ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125 5h 16m 63% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON