tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 10:04, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:04 → PDX 13:05AS 19 1h 27m Portland PDX 14:32 → ANC 17:21AS 1406 11h 17m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 3h 26m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 13h 25m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:03 → MSP 19:58DL 2245 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 56m 89% 72%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399 14h 54m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 3h 46m Seattle SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381 13h 32m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 2h 40m Seattle SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367 12h 44m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 2h 48m Seattle SEA 19:07 → ANC 21:41AS 582 12h 41m 97% 68%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 2h 43m Seattle SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703 12h 56m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 39m 72% 53%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:56 → SEA 20:28DL 740 52m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 11h 02m 61% 44%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31 52m Seattle SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711 11h 04m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON