Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1406 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1406 JFK 07:07 → AUS 10:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2772 JFK 18:51 → AUS 22:07 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:07	AUS 10:04	10%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 810 American	JFK 07:27	AUS 10:43	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2303 American	JFK 12:29	AUS 15:43	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:40	AUS 16:47	19%	5%	0.9%	86%
DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:10	AUS 14:06	19%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 1233 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:57	AUS 23:49	30%	8%	1.0%	76%
AA 2772 American Flight history →	JFK 18:51	AUS 22:07	30%	9%	1.1%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON