Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 5151 at 13:42, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5151 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:42	BGR 15:16	14%	6%	1.4%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:52 → BGR 13:39DL 2350	7h 39m	98%	86%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 09:51 → BGR 12:21AA 1874	6h 22m	97%	81%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 13:04 → BGR 15:36AA 1411	7h 37m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON