Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4697 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4697 JFK 08:48 → BNA 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1173 JFK 17:14 → BNA 18:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4697 Republic	JFK 08:48	BNA 10:19	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 13:31	BNA 15:02	15%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 4710 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:39	BNA 16:21	16%	5%	1.0%	75%
B6 273 JetBlue	JFK 08:04	BNA 09:31	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
B6 1173 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:14	BNA 18:40	34%	12%	1.4%	76%worse than usual
DL 4919 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:44	BNA 09:20	17%	5%	2.6%	83%
DL 4908 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:00	BNA 22:05	26%	14%	7.8%	74%
DL 4909 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:50	BNA 17:47	26%	12%	5.8%	74%
DL 4662 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 11:30	BNA 13:13	27%	11%	4.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON