Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 358 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:55	BUR 20:14	30%	12%	1.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	JFK 10:04 → PDX 13:05AS 19	1h 50m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	10h 09m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 55m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 19:24 → BUR 22:03AS 727	12h 03m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → BUR 15:56AS 529	11h 56m	98%	63%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	10h 16m	96%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	8h 21m	67%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON