tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946 7h 18m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 2h 03m Seattle SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 10h 14m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 09:31 → BZN 11:44AA 2415 7h 45m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 87% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:03 → MSP 19:58DL 2245 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 49m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 7h 54m 61% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON