Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4671 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 4671 JFK 06:28 → DCA 07:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:28	DCA 07:57	6%	2%	1.1%	67%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:50	DCA 10:19	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DCA 09:59	14%	3%	1.2%	60%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:53	DCA 16:22	20%	6%	1.4%	81%
YX 4463 Republic	JFK 21:56	DCA 23:28	25%	8%	2.6%	no record
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	28%	10%	2.9%	68%
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	50%	18%	2.4%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON