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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 636 Delta Flight history → JFK 10:04 HNL 14:43 18% 6% 0.8% 77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history → JFK 08:55 HNL 13:49 25% 7% 1.5% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:12 → DTW 09:03DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 12h 55m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 14h 19m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 15h 43m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1 3h 05m Los Angeles LAX 15:03 → HNL 18:00AA 143 15h 00m 95% 68%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 57m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693 13h 07m 85% 65%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297 15h 41m 95% 64%
DeltaDetails → JFK 12:00 → SEA 14:59DL 1719 1h 37m Seattle SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:53DL 419 13h 53m 92% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON