tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1381 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:15 IAH 11:01 26% 7% 0.9% 66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 14:29 IAH 17:19 37% 14% 1.0% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:25 → IAH 14:32DL 1307 8h 17m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 8h 33m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 59m 92% 77%
JetBlueDetails → JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:14B6 2718 2h 04m Boston BOS 09:18 → IAH 12:26B6 2033 7h 26m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223 8h 14m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 12:22 → IAH 14:05AA 398 7h 06m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → IAH 20:14DL 2327 8h 04m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:23 → IAH 17:35DL 1131 7h 35m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 18:51 → DFW 21:36AA 606 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 6h 23m 73% 44%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 6h 12m 66% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON