Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2440 JFK 18:25 → LAS 21:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	9%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1473 American	JFK 07:57	LAS 10:26	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	20%	5%	0.9%	82%
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	22%	5%	1.0%	84%
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:11	LAS 14:50	25%	6%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:27	LAS 15:56	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 781 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:49	LAS 00:39	31%	8%	1.0%	71%
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	32%	8%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	32%	8%	0.9%	71%
B6 1411 JetBlue	JFK 22:09	LAS 00:46	36%	10%	1.3%	no record
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:55	LAS 19:40	37%	9%	1.2%	83%worse than usual
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:25	LAS 21:04	38%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	86%	65%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	57m Atlanta	ATL 16:42 → LAS 17:52DL 659	7h 42m	78%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON