Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 29 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 20:54 → LAX 00:01 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	13%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	14%	3%	0.9%	90%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	14%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	16%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	16%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	16%	4%	1.0%	85%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:06	LAX 10:08	17%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	17%	4%	0.7%	81%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:37	LAX 12:40	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
DL 1905 Delta	JFK 11:05	LAX 13:49	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	19%	5%	0.9%	81%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:05	LAX 16:02	20%	8%	0.9%	72%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:48	LAX 19:37	23%	7%	0.7%	77%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	23%	5%	0.9%	81%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:54	LAX 18:41	26%	7%	0.7%	75%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:37	LAX 19:43	26%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	26%	7%	0.9%	77%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	28%	9%	1.0%	71%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:41	LAX 20:35	29%	7%	0.7%	81%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	31%	7%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
DL 1915 Delta	JFK 18:57	LAX 21:49	33%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	33%	8%	1.2%	73%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	34%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 20:00	LAX 23:24	34%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	35%	7%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:11	LAX 21:18	36%	10%	1.0%	73%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	38%	13%	1.2%	58%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:54	LAX 00:01	40%	14%	1.2%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:10 → PHX 10:30DL 791	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 32m	92%	77%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	7h 57m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON