Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	8h 59m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:57AS 1310	10h 57m	95%	62%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 11:23 → LGB 14:04AS 717	10h 04m	79%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → LGB 21:45DL 1167	8h 18m	57%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON