Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2603 JFK 17:45 → MIA 20:38 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	9%	2%	1.0%	95%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	16%	3%	2.1%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	21%	4%	1.8%	85%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	28%	9%	1.6%	70%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	30%	6%	5.6%	78%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 10:54	MIA 13:56	32%	7%	5.5%	76%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	35%	9%	1.8%	72%
AA 1922 American	JFK 21:27	MIA 00:33	36%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	38%	12%	2.1%	74%worse than usual
AA 2228 American	JFK 16:18	MIA 19:27	42%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 642 American	JFK 14:48	MIA 17:45	49%	13%	3.3%	no record
AA 2603 American Flight history →	JFK 17:45	MIA 20:38	50%	12%	1.8%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON