Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 75 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 75 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:11	MSY 09:25	13%	4%	1.2%	86%
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:31	MSY 18:02	25%	5%	1.5%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 37m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	3h 54m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	8h 56m	100%	84%
American Details →	JFK 06:28 → DCA 07:57AA 4671 · flown by Republic	3h 33m Washington	DCA 11:30 → MSY 13:22AA 2586	7h 54m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	9h 10m	97%	79%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:14B6 2718	4h 00m Boston	BOS 11:14 → MSY 13:47B6 401	8h 47m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157	6h 40m	96%	75%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → MSY 12:57AA 2030	7h 58m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → MSY 15:44DL 8858	5h 44m	91%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 19:00 → ORD 20:38AA 4489 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → MSY 23:58AA 3256	5h 58m	7%	3%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON