Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	8h 46m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	10h 23m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	78%	62%
Alaska Details →	JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35	2h 28m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	10h 03m	96%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08AS 25	53m San Diego	SAN 21:01 → OAK 22:41AS 2285 · flown by Horizon	8h 44m	58%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON