Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1574 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1574 JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 335 JFK 17:22 → PDX 20:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1574 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	PDX 11:36	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
AS 19 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 10:04	PDX 13:05	16%	3%	0.9%	75%
DL 684 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:59	PDX 21:13	22%	6%	0.8%	68%
AS 335 Alaska	JFK 17:22	PDX 20:17	29%	5%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 25m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → PDX 17:06DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	90%	69%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:03 → MSP 19:58DL 2245	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391	8h 15m	86%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON