Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2369 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2369 JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 819 JFK 19:00 → PHX 21:18 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	15%	4%	1.4%	88%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	16%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	18%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	PHX 11:02	20%	5%	1.0%	76%
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:06	PHX 12:19	26%	6%	1.3%	69%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:29	PHX 20:08	28%	9%	1.0%	73%
AA 2606 American	JFK 17:07	PHX 19:25	34%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 784 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:55	PHX 23:37	34%	10%	1.3%	65%
AA 819 American	JFK 19:00	PHX 21:18	38%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON