tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 23:08, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 23:08 PVD 00:15 26% 10% 1.3% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:28 → DCA 07:57AA 4671 · flown by Republic 2h 02m Washington DCA 09:59 → PVD 11:33AA 5619 · flown by PSA 5h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 6h 29m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PVD 13:07AA 1877 7h 08m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 7h 49m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 13:43 → PVD 15:50AA 2679 7h 51m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 8h 16m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 1h 00m Detroit DTW 10:23 → PVD 12:19DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 5h 04m 87% 75%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 6h 59m 93% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120 1h 08m Charlotte CLT 20:38 → PVD 22:56AA 2318 5h 56m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON