Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4658 at 12:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 4658 JFK 12:55 → RDU 14:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 185 JFK 21:58 → RDU 23:44 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4658 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 12:55	RDU 14:53	9%	4%	1.2%	74%
AA 4573 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:10	RDU 00:12	18%	7%	1.5%	72%
AA 4804 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 18:30	RDU 20:27	22%	8%	1.6%	66%
B6 2285 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:03	RDU 11:51	23%	7%	1.2%	85%
B6 1485 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:05	RDU 17:53	38%	13%	1.6%	90%worse than usual
B6 185 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:58	RDU 23:44	47%	18%	1.5%	57%
DL 5097 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:51	RDU 10:49	15%	5%	2.8%	85%
DL 5028 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 12:30	RDU 14:21	24%	9%	4.1%	76%
DL 5150 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:50	RDU 19:09	25%	12%	5.7%	75%
DL 5103 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 19:25	RDU 21:38	27%	12%	8.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON