Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 189 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 189 JFK 07:45 → SAN 10:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 685 JFK 20:29 → SAN 23:43 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:45	SAN 10:34	16%	4%	1.0%	90%
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:55	SAN 11:55	17%	4%	0.9%	82%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	19%	4%	0.8%	77%
AS 25 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:57	SAN 20:08	29%	7%	0.9%	78%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	30%	8%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:30	SAN 20:34	32%	9%	1.1%	75%
DL 685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:29	SAN 23:43	34%	9%	1.1%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843	8h 36m	96%	73%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122	8h 04m	91%	63%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:03 → MSP 19:58DL 2245	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146	8h 27m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON