Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	SAT 11:42	15%	3%	0.9%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 30m	95%	75%
American Details →	JFK 15:40 → LAX 18:48AA 341	1h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 20:43 → SAT 01:45 +1AA 4962 · flown by SkyWest	11h 05m	92%	72%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	3h 13m Phoenix	PHX 12:31 → SAT 16:57AA 570	10h 55m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	7h 11m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	8h 36m	81%	70%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:51 → SAT 15:11AA 791	7h 56m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120	49m Charlotte	CLT 20:19 → SAT 22:16AA 2441	6h 16m	57%	35%
American Details →	JFK 18:51 → DFW 21:36AA 606	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599	6h 07m	67%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON