Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 699 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 699 JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 263 JFK 17:29 → SEA 20:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 699 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:14	15%	3%	0.9%	74%
DL 1719 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SEA 14:50	18%	3%	1.0%	82%
AS 21 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:16	21%	4%	1.0%	68%
DL 688 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:25	SEA 23:08	25%	7%	1.2%	68%
AS 23 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 13:00	SEA 16:19	26%	4%	1.5%	78%
DL 740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:56	SEA 20:28	29%	6%	1.1%	71%
AS 31 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:29	SEA 20:09	32%	7%	1.7%	74%
AS 17 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 20:23	SEA 23:55	36%	9%	1.6%	51%
B6 263 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:29	SEA 20:57	37%	9%	1.2%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 45m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 10m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON