Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 615 JFK 18:30 → SFO 22:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	9%	3%	1.1%	90%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	13%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	14%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	18%	5%	0.8%	82%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	18%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	18%	7%	1.0%	60%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	19%	5%	0.7%	74%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	SFO 14:31	20%	6%	0.8%	78%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	21%	6%	0.8%	64%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	21%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	24%	8%	0.7%	75%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	25%	8%	1.3%	75%
AS 32 Alaska	JFK 16:46	SFO 19:48	28%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	29%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	30%	8%	1.3%	66%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SFO 19:30	32%	8%	1.0%	67%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	32%	9%	1.2%	65%
DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	33%	9%	0.8%	64%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:02	SFO 22:07	35%	9%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	36%	9%	0.8%	62%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	36%	9%	1.1%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	9h 03m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON