Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 161 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SMF 21:59	31%	15%	1.1%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	9h 16m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	JFK 10:04 → PDX 13:05AS 19	1h 27m Portland	PDX 14:32 → SMF 16:06AS 2405 · flown by Horizon	9h 02m	94%	80%
American Details →	JFK 15:40 → LAX 18:48AA 341	2h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest	10h 40m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 54m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:54 → LAX 18:41DL 707	2h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	10h 13m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest	10h 27m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	10h 17m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	85%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 17:41 → LAX 20:35DL 747	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	71%	57%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	8h 15m	60%	46%
American Details →	JFK 18:51 → DFW 21:36AA 606	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	8h 08m	57%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON