tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:00 SNA 10:44 15% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 16% 3% 1.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:04 → PDX 13:05AS 19 1h 43m Portland PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264 10h 15m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 39m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 3h 30m Seattle SEA 13:46 → SNA 16:38AS 773 12h 38m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 4h 00m Las Vegas LAS 18:01 → SNA 19:15DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 10h 45m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 2h 36m Seattle SEA 18:55 → SNA 21:46AS 631 11h 46m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 09:30 → SFO 12:52AS 227 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 15:48 → SNA 17:26AS 3494 · flown by SkyWest 10h 56m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835 8h 50m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 50m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 9h 55m 69% 51%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SFO 14:50AS 41 48m San Francisco SFO 15:38 → SNA 17:18AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest 8h 48m 72% 50%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 54m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SNA 16:09DL 1277 7h 55m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON