Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1516 at 22:29, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 1516 JFK 22:29 → SYR 00:03 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1516 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:29	SYR 00:03	34%	11%	1.8%	67%
DL 5436 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:10	SYR 10:41	11%	4%	3.1%	89%
DL 5328 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:34	SYR 16:11	18%	7%	2.1%	82%
DL 5371 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:56	SYR 00:43	21%	9%	7.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON