Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2042 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2042 JFK 07:05 → TPA 10:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2725 JFK 19:59 → TPA 23:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	TPA 10:01	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:30	TPA 17:39	20%	7%	0.8%	79%
B6 225 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:41	TPA 13:47	22%	7%	1.2%	80%
DL 1636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	TPA 23:20	24%	8%	0.9%	76%
B6 2725 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:59	TPA 23:14	32%	11%	1.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON