Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 20m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 32m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 00m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 49m	93%	75%
American Details →	JFK 17:45 → MIA 20:38AA 2603	2h 32m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	7h 14m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	6h 08m	92%	71%
American Details →	JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 17:02 → VPS 17:50AA 5201 · flown by PSA	6h 51m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	5h 29m	74%	60%
American Details →	JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22AA 1174	48m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	48%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON