Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 7005 JNU 07:03 → ANC 09:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 67 JNU 21:10 → ANC 22:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 7005 Alaska	JNU 07:03	ANC 09:23	11%	6%	2.0%	no record
AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 07:36	ANC 09:22	12%	5%	2.0%	88%
AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:02	ANC 14:48	17%	5%	1.8%	82%
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 21:10	ANC 22:56	18%	6%	3.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON