Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 60 at 07:35, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 60 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 07:35	KTN 08:35	11%	3%	1.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ketchikan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JNU 09:55 → SIT 10:40AS 62	59m Sitka	SIT 11:39 → KTN 12:33AS 62	2h 38m	85%	71%
Alaska Details →	JNU 13:54 → SEA 17:20AS 456	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 18:38 → KTN 19:43AS 69	5h 49m	89%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON