Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1605 JNU 07:20 → SEA 10:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 456 JNU 13:54 → SEA 17:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1605 Delta Flight history →	JNU 07:20	SEA 10:56	15%	7%	1.1%	98%worse than usual
AS 304 Alaska	JNU 07:13	SEA 10:38	18%	5%	1.7%	no record
AS 7004 Alaska	JNU 20:30	SEA 00:00	19%	7%	2.0%	no record
AS 66 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 18:31	SEA 21:57	22%	7%	2.0%	83%
AS 456 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:54	SEA 17:20	23%	6%	1.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON