Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2223 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2223 KOA 08:00 → HNL 09:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1177 KOA 20:45 → HNL 21:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2223 Southwest	KOA 08:00	HNL 09:04	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2224 Southwest	KOA 11:40	HNL 12:44	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	8%	2%	1.2%	94%
WN 2225 Southwest	KOA 15:40	HNL 16:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 07:29	HNL 08:31	8%	2%	1.2%	87%
WN 2226 Southwest	KOA 19:00	HNL 20:04	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:50	HNL 09:52	12%	3%	1.1%	82%
AS 1047 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:52	HNL 10:54	17%	3%	1.0%	74%
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:29	HNL 11:31	17%	3%	1.0%	76%
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:48	HNL 12:50	17%	3%	1.0%	78%
AS 1117 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:20	HNL 16:22	20%	4%	1.0%	78%
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:42	HNL 15:44	20%	5%	1.1%	76%
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:11	HNL 17:13	21%	5%	1.0%	85%
AS 1097 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:27	HNL 14:29	21%	5%	1.0%	71%
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:21	HNL 12:23	21%	4%	1.1%	67%
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:13	HNL 13:15	22%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:15	HNL 20:03	24%	5%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:30	HNL 19:17	25%	5%	1.0%	76%
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:02	HNL 17:49	25%	6%	1.2%	74%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:45	HNL 18:32	25%	5%	1.0%	75%
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 20:45	HNL 21:33	25%	5%	1.0%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON