Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:26, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:26	LIH 09:40	6%	1%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	2h 26m Honolulu	HNL 09:13 → LIH 10:07AS 1043	4h 07m	100%	88%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:29 → HNL 08:31AS 1027	1h 20m Honolulu	HNL 09:51 → LIH 10:45AS 1053	3h 16m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:42 → HNL 15:44AS 1107	3h 04m Honolulu	HNL 18:48 → LIH 19:42AS 1163	5h 00m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:20 → HNL 16:22AS 1117	3h 13m Honolulu	HNL 19:35 → LIH 20:29AS 1173	5h 09m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:27 → HNL 14:29AS 1097	3h 39m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 19:02AS 1153	5h 35m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 32m Honolulu	HNL 21:21 → LIH 22:15AS 1183	5h 13m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:13 → HNL 13:15AS 1087	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 17:15 → LIH 18:09AS 1143	5h 56m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:27 → HNL 14:29AS 1097	50m Honolulu	HNL 15:19 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	2h 46m	62%	46%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:42 → HNL 15:44AS 1107	49m Honolulu	HNL 16:33 → LIH 17:27AS 1133	2h 45m	58%	44%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:21 → HNL 12:23AS 1067	46m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	2h 42m	57%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON