Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2217 at 13:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2217 KOA 13:35 → OGG 14:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9X 504 KOA 19:00 → OGG 20:21 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2217 Southwest	KOA 13:35	OGG 14:30	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1039 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:19	OGG 09:55	12%	2%	0.6%	92%
AS 1149 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:51	OGG 13:28	21%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 1259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:52	OGG 14:29	23%	3%	0.6%	73%
9X 504 Southern Airways Express	KOA 19:00	OGG 20:21	25%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON