Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	14%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:45 → HNL 18:32AS 1147	3h 19m Honolulu	HNL 21:51 → PDX 06:41 +1AS 879	9h 56m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 11:15 → PDX 19:30AS 890	7h 11m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:40AS 1029	2h 43m Lihue	LIH 12:23 → PDX 20:57AS 901	9h 31m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:50 → HNL 09:52AS 1037	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 00m	100%	72%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 49m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	9h 55m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	52m Honolulu	HNL 07:39 → PDX 16:09AS 860	7h 09m	81%	67%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	58m San Diego	SAN 20:00 → PDX 22:33AS 794	8h 56m	78%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:29 → HNL 11:31AS 1057	51m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 21m	64%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON