Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Lihue, leaving 08:26, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 266 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:37	SAN 19:02	21%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:40AS 1029	1h 06m Lihue	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	7h 58m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:45 → HNL 18:32AS 1147	3h 28m Honolulu	HNL 22:00 → SAN 06:21 +1AS 93	9h 36m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:50 → HNL 09:52AS 1037	2h 47m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 17m	100%	67%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 51m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SAN 00:51 +1UA 1389	9h 56m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON