Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 12:51, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 20:55	SEA 05:30	13%	7%	1.1%	93%
AS 735 Alaska	KOA 13:02	SEA 21:58	19%	7%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 34m Honolulu	HNL 21:23 → SEA 06:23 +1AS 854	10h 21m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 47m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	8h 08m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 19:15 → HNL 20:03AS 1167	3h 17m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	9h 45m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:40AS 1029	2h 51m Lihue	LIH 12:31 → SEA 21:21AS 234	9h 55m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:52 → HNL 10:54AS 1047	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 14:35 → SEA 23:09AS 627	10h 17m	100%	66%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 42m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → SEA 01:15 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	10h 20m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:29 → HNL 08:31AS 1027	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	9h 44m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 00m Kahului	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	9h 06m	100%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:52 → OGG 14:29AS 1259	46m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	7h 07m	40%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON